Gamblor’s Guide: 2nd Edition
Welcome to the 2nd edition of Gamblor’s Guide. I was a bit off the ball with a few predictions last week, hoping to make amends to that win/loss ratio this week and find some good value for all the punters out there.
In the Premier League we have the match that could decide the season Manchester Utd vs. Chelsea. Given United will be happy with a draw, and Chelsea will be going all out to win, both teams to score at $1.75 looks a winner. Personally I’m rooting for a Chelsea win. A 1-1 draw ($6) or 2-1 to either side ($9 Utd) ($11 Chelsea) is my prediction at the final score and has more value than the $1.75 bet for those chasing more value.
Arsenal’s 1-0 win over Utd blew the title race open last week and now they have to travel to Britannia Stadium to face Stoke. Given that Stoke are almost unbeatable on their home turf and given Arsenal’s dislike of Stoke’s physical game style, I could see Stoke nicking a win. $5 on offer for the win or $3.75 for the draw looks great. But I’ll go with the safe Stoke win/draw option at $2.20.
At Aston Villa, almost anything Darren Bent touches turns to gold, or should I say goals… $4.50 to be the first goalscorer in their match v Wigan. Although very short odds for first goalscorer, is a decent bet as I really don’t see anyone else standing up for either side or take $1.80 to score at any time. Villa should account for Wigan so if you’d prefer the 1.80 on offer for them to win by all means take that instead.
In the AFL there’s a bit of value on offer this weekend. The GC Brisbane game has me stumped. GC were disgusting in the 1st quarter last week, but competitive thereafter, and Brisbane has been relatively competitive in a lot of games but are yet to get off the mark this season and sit bottom. I don’t see Brisbane annihilating them, nor can I safely say Brisbane will win. GC (+46.5) is $2 and could be a good bet if they can replicate and sustain their 2nd quarter efforts from last week.
Essendon should find West Coast a tougher task than their training drill vs. GC last week. Given WC have matched up well with the Bombers in the past, any side under 24.5 at 2.40 has some value. Both sides have improved out of sight over the preseason and I anticipate a tight contest, instead of a hiding predicted for West Coast (no bias)
Given how utterly woeful Melbourne was last Thursday and Adelaide making amends for their embarrassing loss to Port, the Crows surprisingly go in as underdogs. Crows 1-24 at $3.75 is my value bet of the week.
To the NRL, only a few sides are playing this weekend so it’s hard to find much worth backing. Manly should comfortably cover the $2 line (-9.5) when they host the last placed Raiders, who were embarrassed by West Tigers last week. For those that are game enough, Manly 19+ is $3.40 or 13-18 is $5.50.
My $5 value multi this week has Stoke win/draw 2.20, Carlton 1-39 2.25, Adelaide (+24.5) $1.33, Hawthorn 1-39 $2.20, Geelong (over 15.5) $1.18 = $17.09.
I’ll also be keeping a progressive tally from now on, starting off with $50.
This week’s pending bets:
My $5 multi @ 17.09
$10 Multi Manly (-9.5), Adelaide (+24.5), Carlton (+24.5) @ $3
$5 Manly 13-18 @ $5.50
$10 Crows 1-24 @$3.75
$10 Stoke win/draw $2.20
$5 Chelsea v Utd 1-1 @ $6
$5 Chelsea 2-1 @ $11 (again no bias)
Best of luck this weekend punters. Any questions/thoughts feel free to comment and I’ll attempt to get back to you.
An insightful write-up. You must be quite the successful gambler!