Jamie Murphy (Spudregus_87) — Twitter: @jamiedmurphy
Saturday, March 24
Greater Western Sydney vs Sydney Swans
Venue: ANZ Stadium @ 7:20pm (Local Time)
Forecast: Clear, 22C, 43% Humidity.
Teams
Greater Western Sydney
B: Tomas Bugg, Phil Davis, Adam Kennedy
HB: Jack Hombsch, Tim Mohr, Will Hoskin-Elliot
C: Rhys Palmer, Callan Ward, Chad Cornes
HF: Nathan Wilson, Israel Folau, Stephen Coniglio
F: Curtly Hampton, Jeremy Cameron, Devon Smith
Foll: Jonathan Giles, Dylan Shiel, James McDonald
I/C: Jacob Townsend, Toby Greene, Adam Tomlinson, Dom Tyson
Emg: Steve Clifton, Tom Downie, Sam Reid
Sydney Swans
B: Nicholas Smith, Heath Grundy, Martin Mattner
HB: Andrejs Everitt, Ted Richards, Alex Johnson
C: Nick Malceski, Kieren Jack, Craig Bird
HF: Jarrad McVeigh, Adam Goodes, Luke Parker
F: Lewis Roberts-Thomson, Sam Reid, Ben McGlynn
Foll: Shane Mumford, Jude Bolton, Josh P. Kennedy
I/C: Daniel Hannebery, Gary Rohan, Lewis Jetta, Harry Cunningham
Emg: Nathan Gordon, Mitch Morton, Mark Seaby
New: Harry Cunningham (Turvey Park/Turvey Park)
Partial Lockout/Vice Captain Loophole
Partial Lockout
Experienced SuperCoachers should be familiar with the concept of the ‘partial lockout,’ but for those who don’t know, or are struggling with it, this next section is for you. The only thing you need to arrange this weekend are the Swans and GWS players you want in your squad. Once that clock hits 7:20pm Saturday night, these players are locked into your side, and will remain so until Round 2. For example, if you have James McDonald in your SC side this weekend, and he were to have a sub-par game, you wouldn’t be able to trade him out on Monday for another player, given he has already played. However, if you have Lenny Hayes in your team, you have the option of getting rid of the St Kilda veteran right up until until Friday night (March 30th) without using a trade given the Saints don’t play until next Sunday. This is why it is important for you to get your GWS players right from the get-go, so hopefully the ‘GWS Rookie Ratings’ section below assists you in that area.
Vice Captain Loophole
Now, this is where it gets a bit tricky. If a partial lock-out is applicable to a round of the home and away season, you are effectively able to have two attempts at trying to pick a high-scoring captain that round. For instance, this week, nominate a Sydney player as your Vice Captain – chances are they’ll have a decent showing against GWS – then simply sub in a non-playing rookie who you can guarantee won’t be play in Round 1, and give that non-playing rookie the captaincy. Ensure that the player you sub out is listed as an emergency (purple ‘E’) for your team.
If the Vice Captain you’ve chosen registers a subpar score, then you simply name a captain from the second week of Round 1, and you’ll get the usual doubled score. However, if you’re happy with your VC’s score, you can leave the captaincy on the non-playing rookie you brought on to the field, and have your bench emergency’s score count, as they would be covering the non-playing rookie’s zero.
There are dangers with this technique. You can never be sure that the non-playing rookie you sub in won’t be a late inclusion, and on the flip side, if you pick a rookie who you know won’t be playing, there’s no telling when that player might get a run.
Vice Captain Candidates
1. Adam Goodes – $586,500 (MID/FWD)
2011 Average: 108.18
NAB Cup Form: DNP (NAB 1), 77 (N2), 90 (N3); Average: 84
Average over first three rounds: 104 (2011), 93 (2010) & 118 (2009).
The dual-Brownlow medalist is an elite fantasy player. If you’re prepared to fork out 5.8% of your salary cap for him, he simply has to be at the top of your list when it comes to the Vice-Captain loophole. Expect 140+, but be wary that he may get subbed off, if the Swans are 15 goals up at half time.
2. Shane Mumford – $610,300 (RUCK)
2011 Average: 112.59
NAB Cup Form: 21 (N1), 45 (N2), 170 (N3); Average: 79
Average over first five rounds: 122.8 (2011) & 76 (2010).
In my opinion, the #1 challenger to Dean Cox’s best SC ruckman mantle, big Mummy could be anything this year. He proved last year that he doesn’t need a bucket-load of possessions to make an impact. Scored 93 against the Suns last year, so we’ve got a fair idea of what he’s capable of against weaker teams in the comp. I don’t think a 150+ game is out of the question.
3. Marc Murphy – $639,900 (MID)
2011 Average: 118.05
NAB Cup Form: 58 (N1), DNP (N2), 87 (N3); Average: 73
Average over first five rounds: 113.4 (2011), 116 (2010), 114 (2009).
If there was ever a player who could guarantee you a 100+ score 99% of the time, it’s Marc Murphy. Staggeringly, only had one sub-90 game last year (Round 3 vs Collingwood). Personally, his side’s pre-season form doesn’t concern me, because you know what you get with Murphy; a blue-chip fantasy investment who will more often than not produce the goods.
4. Chris Judd – $626,400 (MID)
2011 Average: 115.55
NAB Cup Form: DNP (N1), 34 (N2), 60 (N3); Average: 47
Average over first five rounds: 106.2 (2011), 131.8 (2010) & 113.8 (2009).
An interrupted pre-season has cast a few doubts over the champ’s ability to start 2012 on a strong note. I for one share these concerns to a degree; I think we should be aiming to snare the ‘Juddster’ as an upgrade target after the Round 13 bye. Having said that, it’s incredibly hard to deny his early season form over the past three years, where he’s averaged 106, 132 & 114 over the first five rounds.
5. Brett Deledio – $568,700 (DEF/MID)
2011 Average: 104.91
NAB Cup Form: DNP (N1), DNP (N2), 163 (N3); Average: 163
Average over first five rounds: 104.8 (2011)
After twinging his hamstring/lower back during a training session, there were fears that Deledio would be underdone coming into Round 1. After given an extra week off to recover rather than play the Cats, Lids came back with a bang! Racking up 33 disposals and kicking multiple goals against GWS, where he notched up 163 SC points. The recruitment of Brandon Ellis and Steve Morris will more than likely free Deledio up for much more midfield time, which makes him a strong candidate to tear it up against the Blues.
Nick Malceski – $367,700 (DEF)
2011 Average: 67.83
NAB Cup Form: 60 (NAB2), 101 (N3), 112 (N3); Average : 91
Smokie Pick: In the seasons that Malceski averaged over 95 ppg, he’s gotten off to incredible starts. In 2007 where he averaged 100.95 from 22 games, he registered scores of 76, 162, 85, 117 & 151 across his first five outings; averaging 118. Compare that to his 2010 season where the Sydney rebounder had a mean score of 96.41. He opened his account that season a five round average of 112. Has had a cracking pre-season too, averaging 91. If you’ve got him in your side, he’s perhaps the best ‘smokie’ pick at your disposal.
GWS Rookie Ratings
After troweling through this year’s AFL Prospectus, and keenly watching the Greater Western Sydney games during the NAB Cup, I’ve compiled a list of eight standout rookies who, in my opinion, should be at the top of your lists when weighing up which GWS rookies to play. I took scoring potential, durability and job security into account.
1. Devon Smith – $131,600 (MID/FWD)
NAB Cup Scores: 89 (NAB 1), DNP (N2), 74 (N3); Average: 82
2012 Prospectus: ‘He dominated in his six games with the Geelong Falcons in the 2011 TAC Cup and was one of only two players to average 20 disposals, 10 contested possessions, one goal and five clearances per game.’
2. Jonathan Giles – $126,700 (RUCK)
NAB Cup Scores: 68 (N1), 23 (N2), 124 (N3); Average: 72
2012 Prospectus: ‘He played 16 NEAFL games last year and was the club’s No. 1 ruckman, averaging 16 disposals, 10 contested possessions, 25 hitouts, four clearances and recording a hitout-to-advantage rate of 29% – 4% above the average for an AFL ruckman.’
3. Steve Coniglio – $191,600 (MID)
NAB Cup Scores: 84 (N1), DNP (N2), 51 (N3); Average: 68
2012 Prospectus: ‘At the 2011 NAB Under-18 championships, he was awarded the Larke Medal, ranking elite for both score involvements and tackles, proving he has a good balance of attack and defence.’
4. Dylan Shiel – $113,200 (MID)
NAB Cup Scores: Has not played due to appendicitis and an ankle injury.
2012 Prospectus: ‘He averaged more contested possessions than any other player in the competition while playing for Dandenong Stingrays in the 2010 TAC Cup season and was also valuable forward of centre, averaging the second-most score assists of any player.’
5. Adam Kennedy – $113,200 (MID/FWD)
NAB Cup Scores: 25 (N1), 43 (N2), 100 (N3); Average: 56
2012 Prospectus: ‘He was named on the interchange bench of the 2011 TAC Cup team of the year, averaging the forth-most effective disposals of any player across the competition.’
6. James McDonald – $106,600 (MID)
NAB Cup Scores: 29 (N1), 31 (N2), 72 (N3); Average: 44
2012 Prospectus: ‘During his last season at Melbourne, he averaged the forth most tackles of any player in the AFL, and ranked in the top three at the club in averaged for disposals, effective long kicks, contested possessions and clearances.’
7. Jeremy Cameron – $113,200 (FWD)
NAB Cup Scores: 75 (N1), 21 (N2), 47 (N3); Average: 48
2012 Prospectus: ‘He played 16 games for North Ballarat in the TAC Cup that season, booting 33 goals – ranked No. 1 for his side and sixth in the competition. He also grabbed 43 contested marks – ranked second in the competition behind Jonathan Patton – but 28 of these were taken inside 50 – ranked No. 1. He played 12 NEAFL games last season, averaging the most marks and contested marks of any Giants player.’
8. Thomas Bugg – $113,200 (DEF)
NAB Cup Scores: DNP (N1), 58 (N2), 87 (N3); Average: 73
2012 Prospectus: ‘Bugg played eight games with Gippsland (Power) in the 2010 TAC Cup Season, averaging 19 disposals – ranked sixth at the club – and recording the second highest disaposal efficiency of any teammate.’
That’s all for this week, but here’s what you can expect in parts two and three of the blockbuster preview…
PART 2 – Bye Anaylsis (Monday 26th)
I’ll go through each of the bye rounds (R11-13), listing the relevant SuperCoach players that are affected as a result of their team’s week off. In addition, I’ll attempt to give you some strategies in order to help decrease the amount of ‘zeros’ your team will experience.
PART 3 – Round 1 Preview, Part 2 (Wednesday 28th)
All the usual segments from last year’s weekly preview; ‘Captain’s Corner,’ ‘Key Ins and Outs,’ ‘Op Shop,’ ‘Rookie Watch’ as well as a new segment ‘Eye on the Media’ where I’ll highlight any major news articles relevant to SuperCoach.
