Welcome to this edition of Trade Talk. There’s a fair bit to talk about so let’s get straight into it.
Firstly, I’ll start off by saying that I am 100% ‘sideways’ trading premiums unless they suffer a long-term injury or suspension. This paid dividends for me last week where unlike a lot of people who traded Greg Broughton out; I kept him and was rewarded with 109 dream-team points. However; having said this there’s a few players that need to be looked at along with the advantages and disadvantages of trading them out and that’s what this blog looks to provide.
The Fyfe Dilemma
Nathan Fyfe (Fremantle)
Price: $450,000 (-$36,600)
The issue with Nathan Fyfe is that shoulder. It popped out last week, forcing him to get subbed off early in the second quarter with a measly score of only 22. We know that Fyfe is a fantastic scorer as evidenced by his 124 in R1 and 85 in R2 – but that shoulder is worrying. Whilst the news coming out of Fremantle is that he might be right to play on Friday against the Saints, do you really want to keep him and risk it happening again? Also, as Ross Lyon has shown he has no issue with giving his star players either the green or red vest – but at least with it being a Friday night game we’ll know a bit more beforehand.
There are 3 things you can do with Nathan Fyfe:
1) Trade him to another FWD
2) Swap him into your midfield and trade him for a midfielder
3) Keep him
Brendan Whitecross (Hawthorn)
Price: $412,000 (+$34,200)
2012 average: 111.7
Brendan Whitecross has started the season like a house on fire and is the highest averaging forward after 3 rounds with scores of 95, 118 and 122. The problem with Brendan Whitecross is that he’s an unknown quantity and his scoring might decrease with the return of Luke Hodge. Still, it’s hard to argue with his start to the season and I ask you to cast your minds back to last year and the emergence of Liam Shiels, also from Hawthorn. There’s always one player a year that is the surprise packet and with Hawthorn’s DT friendly game, Whitecross could be this guy.
Mitch Robinson (Carlton)
Price: $459,800 (+$3,600)
2012 average: 103.7
Mitch Robinson is the most ‘like-for-like’ option that you’ll get for Nathan Fyfe. He’s a MID/FWD, plays in a very DT friendly team in Carlton and is spending an increasing amount of time in the midfield rotation. His huge score of 127 against Collingwood last round shows that he can perform against the better teams as well. They’re priced similarly (Robinson is $9,800 more) so you lose the advantage of making a bit of cash that you’ll get over trading to Whitecross, but it’s a very solid option.
Chad Cornes (Greater Western Sydney)
Price: $363,900 (+$33,600)
2012 average: 100.7
The ball spends a lot of time in the GWS backline – which is where Chad Cornes plays loose a lot of the time so he should be seeing plenty of the ball. He got a ‘disappointing’ 74 against West Coast after surpassing the 110 mark in each of his previous two games. Personally I’d stay clear of Chad because I’m not sure he can keep it up, but he’s a good unique choice that should continue to score well.
Some other forward options to consider could be Nick Riewoldt ($418,000, Avg: 93), with the St. Kilda game-plan looking to suit him more this year. Steele Sidebottom ($429,300, Avg: 95) has also started the year very brightly & Brent Harvey ($440,400, Avg: 100) who has spent the early part of the year playing as a loose man in defence.
I’m not going to list the possible options here because it really depends on how much cash you have left-over. If you can afford to get Fyfe to a premium like Murphy or Boyd then go for it – if not there’s some good mid-priced options like Jack Ziebell ($384,900 Avg: 139), Callan Ward ($435,900 Avg: 115.3), Josh Kennedy ($444,500 Avg: 108) or Brad Ebert ($360,500 Avg: 111.3) but remember if you choose to trade Fyfe for a midfielder, your forward line is going to be weakened.
Leuenberger & ‘that’ Achilles:
Matthew Leuenberger (Brisbane)
Price: $405,200 (-$53,900)
Because of his score of 7 last round due to injury, Leuenberger suffered a huge price drop that limits what you can do with him. There were rumours of this injury before the season commenced so if you still rolled the dice with him, you sort of have yourself to blame. However, luckily for you there is a ready-made replacement that you can get – and save money on (assuming you can’t afford to get Sandilands or Cox):
Hamish McIntosh (North Melbourne)
Price: $308,600 (+$35,100)
2012 avg: 89.3
An opening round score of 56 was disappointing, but H-Mac has followed it up with consecutive 106’s and looks to be North Melbourne’s main man now. The Kangaroos also have an extremely easy fixture which should lead to him finishing the season with an average of 90+.
Who else is out in Round 3?
Adam Goodes is suspended for a week, but you have to cop it on the chin this week and play a rookie instead. Same goes for Brian Lake in defence because despite not scoring fantastically his break-even for next round is only 4 and he’s expected to rise by close to $20,000. Grant Birchall has pulled up okay despite being substituted with a bruised knee last week and looks set to play against West Coast on Saturday night.
There are a number of rookies that have only played 1 game which means that they can be good early season downgrade targets as early as next week:
James McDonald (Greater Western Sydney)
James McDonald has only played one game due to a 2 week suspension picked up in round 1. He scored 97 in that game so his projected B/E for Rd 5 is going to be -132 which will result in a huge price rise. The problem is that he’s going to be a little bit too early because none of our rookies would have yet maxed out.
Koby Stevens (West Coast)
Koby Stevens played against GWS this weekend and got a nice score of 83. His performance wasn’t great though so you’d think his job security isn’t the best; however if he can keep his spot – or even better, get dropped and come back in in a few rounds time, he looms as a good downgrade target.
Adam Treloar (Greater Western Sydney)
This guy is going to be a must-have, and is looking like keeping his spot. I’d keep Aaron Hall for an extra round if you have him – who should be priced at $154,500 after this round if he gets his average (49) which means you’ll make $50,000 off him. Other than that you can trade Tory Dickson or Darren Pfeiffer to him if you still have them on your bench and not make any money, but getting a playing rookie.
On the rise:
This section will look at those players that gained the most in value.
James Magner (Melbourne)
Current Price: $166,500 (+$80,700)
% change: 94.1%
B/E for Rd 4: -47
Projected price change for Rd 4: $54,000
Despite a very disappointing 48 after back-to-back centuries in the first two rounds, James Magner still went up the most in price with a massive $80,700. He plays the Western Bulldogs this weekend and if he can get his current average (85.7) – he will go up another $54,000 to $220,500 and will probably still have a negative break-even.
Tomas Bugg (Greater Western Sydney)
Current Price: $176,000 (+$71,800)
% change: 68.9%
B/E for Rd 4: -37
Projected price change for Rd 4: $48,200
Tomas Bugg has been the second best cash-cow to date. After a score of 93 against West Coast on the weekend after being named on the ball, there is plenty to still be optimistic about with Tomas Bugg. If he can manage a score of 82 against Adelaide this weekend he’ll go up to $224,200 and with more money still to be made, he is looking like a fantastic pick.
Brad Ebert (Port Adelaide)
Current Price: $360,500 (+$52,400)
% change: 17%
B/E for Rd 4: 27
Projected price change for Rd 4: $15,900
Brad Ebert has started the season like a house on fire with scores of 129, 82 and 123 he’s scoring like a premium. If you’re one of the 13,555 coaches that has him then congratulations on a great selection.
On the slide
This section will look at those premiums with big expected price falls that we can look to upgrade to for a cheaper price.
Ryan O’Keefe (Sydney)
B/E for Rd 4: 220
Projected price change for Rd 4: -$62,700
Ryan O’Keefe has always been a reliable DT scorer, with a lowest average of 83.5 since 2006 and an average of 93.1 last year. This year, however, he suffered an injury and has lacked match practice resulting in some low scores.
Tom Rockliff (Brisbane)
Price: $520,100 (-$34,100)
B/E for Rd 4: 182
Projected price change for Rd 4: -$33,000
After already dropping $34,100 – Tom Rockliff is expected to fall another $33,000 this week which will take him to under $500,000. Watch out for him because when up and going he is a proven DT gun.
Scott Pendlebury (Collingwood)
Price: $550,400 (-$26,500)
B/E for Rd 4: 170
Projected price change for Rd 4: -$23,900
A good thing about a gun like Scott Pendlebury having a bad game last week (if you don’t own him), is that his B/E for next round is high and therefore so is his expected price drop.
Dayne Beams (Collingwood)
B/E for Rd 4: 156
Projected price change for Rd 4: -$16,300
Dayne Beams scored like a DT champ last year and with his DPP eligibility will be hot property this year when he gets his form back.
Paul Chapman (Geelong)
Price: $473,700 (-$31,600)
B/E for Rd 4: 154
Projected price change for Rd 4: -$24,100
We all know that Paul Chapman is capable of averaging more than 100 because he has for each of the last 3 seasons. The good news is that you should be able to pick him up for about $420,000 after he ‘bottoms out’.