The Brownlow Medal

[James Pattinson]

Lol'd @ Judd not getting 3 votes in the Freo game.

[Rumblah]

Brownlow Medal Night Drinking Game(read info). | Facebook

[Damon_3388]

I was bored so I thought I'd do this:

A projected vote spread from Carlton's 2011 games:

Round 1, Carlton vs. Richmond (Carlton win by 20 points)
3 - Bryce Gibbs (Carlton), 2 - Chris Newman (Richmond), 1 - Kade Simpson (Carlton)

Round 2, Gold Coast vs. Carlton (Carlton win by 119 points)
3 - Marc Murphy (Carlton), 2 - Andrew Walker (Carlton), 1 - Bryce Gibbs (Carlton)

Round 3, Collingwood vs. Carlton (Collingwood win by 28 points)
3 - Jarryd Blair (Collingwood), 2 - Heath Shaw (Collingwood), 1 - Chris Judd (Carlton)

Round 4, Carlton vs. Essendon (Drawn game)
3 - Dustin Fletcher (Essendon), 2 - Heath Scotland (Carlton), 1 - Brent Stanton (Essendon)

Round 5, Carlton vs. Adelaide (Carlton win by 6 points)
3 - Marc Murphy (Carlton), 2 - Graham Johncock (Adelaide), 1 - Heath Scotland (Carlton)

Round 6, Sydney vs. Carlton (Carlton win by 16 points)
3 - Chris Judd (Carlton), 2 - Shane Mumford (Sydney), 1 - Eddie Betts (Carlton)

Round 7, St Kilda vs. Carlton (Carlton win by 3 points)
3 - Andrew Carrazzo (Carlton), 2 - Sam Fisher (St Kilda), 1 - Jarrad Waite (Carlton)

Round 9, Carlton vs. Geelong (Geelong win by 2 points)
3 - Joel Selwood (Geelong), 2 - Marc Murphy (Carlton), 1 - Paul Chapman (Geelong)

Round 10, Melbourne vs. Carlton (Carlton win by 47 points)
3 - Chris Judd (Carlton), 2 - Marc Murphy (Carlton), 1 - Colin Sylvia (Melbourne)

Round 11, Port Adelaide vs. Carlton (Carlton win by 62 points)
3 - Mitch Robinson (Carlton), 2 - Andrew Walker (Carlton), 1 - Marc Murphy (Carlton)

Round 12, Carlton vs. Brisbane (Carlton win by 61 points)
3 - Marc Murphy (Carlton), 2 - Eddie Betts (Carlton), 1 - Andrew Walker (Carlton)

Round 13, Carlton vs. Sydney (Carlton win by 34 points)
3 - Matthew Kreuzer (Carlton), 2 - Marc Murphy (Carlton), 1 - Bryce Gibbs (Carlton)

Round 14, Carlton vs. West Coast (West Coast win by 36 points)
3 - Matt Priddis (West Coast), 2 - Luke Shuey (West Coast), 1 - Heath Scotland (Carlton)

Round 15, Richmond vs. Carlton (Carlton win by 103 points)
3 - Chris Judd (Carlton), 2 - Mitch Robinson (Carlton), 1 - Robert Warnock (Carlton)

Round 16, Western Bulldogs vs. Carlton (Western Bulldogs win by 27 points)
3 - Callan Ward (Western Bulldogs), 2 - Matthew Boyd (Western Bulldogs), 1 - Bryce Gibbs (Carlton)

Round 17, Carlton vs. Collingwood (Collingwood win by 21 points)
3 - Dale Thomas (Collingwood), 2 - Chris Judd (Carlton), 1 - Scott Pendlebury (Collingwood)

Round 18, Essendon vs. Carlton (Carlton win by 74 points)
3 - Chris Judd (Carlton), 2 - Eddie Betts (Carlton), 1 - Marc Murphy (Carlton)

Round 19, North Melbourne vs. Carlton (Carlton win by 18 points)
3 - Bryce Gibbs (Carlton), 2 - Andrew Swallow (North Melbourne), 1 - Marc Murphy (Carlton)

Round 20, Carlton vs. Melbourne (Carlton win by 74 points)
3 - Chris Judd (Carlton), 2 - Heath Scotland (Carlton), 1 - David Ellard (Carlton)

Round 21, Fremantle vs. Carlton (Carlton win by 30 points)
3 - Andrew Walker (Carlton), 2 - Chris Judd (Carlton), 1 - Matthew Pavlich (Fremantle)

Round 22, Carlton vs. Hawthorn (Hawthorn win by 12 points)
3 - Jordan Lewis (Hawthorn), 2 - Kade Simpson (Carlton), 1 - Josh Gibson (Hawthorn)

Judd votes - 20 (5 BOGs).

Hardly a certain a certain winning lead (if it's a lead at all). Realistically, he shouldn't even be that far ahead of Marc Murphy (also on 18 votes with 3 BOGs in the projected spread above), and he's no certainty to win the medal either.

This looks like something I posted on BigFooty at 4:46pm on Tuesday afternoon...

If you're going to do a word-for-word copy-and-paste of something I've posted elsewhere, at least give me credit.

Also, Carrazzo 3 votes

Thinking back to game again, I've probably sold Bryce Gibbs short in that one, for his job on Brendon Goddard. That being said, Carrazzo deserved to be in/around the votes. Whether he'll get the three votes (or any) remains to be seen, but it was arguably his best individual performance of the year (along with the Essendon draw and the Richmond thrashing), so he deserves some credit for it.

Judd will poll in the GC game, 3 in the freo game and will figure in either the Lions or second Sydney game.

Lol'd @ Judd not getting 3 votes in the Freo game.

Judd wasn't a clear-cut BOG in any of these games IMO, and (for the ones I didn't give him any votes in) you could raffle the votes between a few players for some of those games.

Also, as I said on BigFooty - I'm not disputing that Judd could win the medal; he's as good a chance as anyone to do that, and would be a worthy winner as one of the top handful of players in the league for the year, as he was last year. I just don't think he's had a significantly better year individually than last year, and I don't think he's been far-and-away, head-and-shoulders above everyone else to the point that he's a near-unbackable favourite, and one betting agency has paid out on him winning already. He just hasn't been that amazingly dominant over the rest of the competition this year and that far ahead of the other leading contenders that he deserves such overwhelming favouritism.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if when they got to the half way point of this year's count that Marc Murphy was the Carlton player leading the field, and Judd still hadn't reached double figures. Judd's second half of the year has been much better, brilliant, eye-catching and vote-worthy than his first, and people are forgeting that I think and thinking that he (just like Ablett) had a slow start to the year by his lofty standards. I think Judd will end up with 20-25 votes (I'll give a few extras to make up for the ones I've "missed"), but that's no certainty to be a winning total, and certainly not deserving of the unbackable favouratism he's received.

[James Pattinson]

This looks like something I posted on BigFooty at 4:46pm on Tuesday afternoon...

If you're going to do a word-for-word copy-and-paste of something I've posted elsewhere, at least give me credit.



Thinking back to game again, I've probably sold Bryce Gibbs short in that one, for his job on Brendon Goddard. That being said, Carrazzo deserved to be in/around the votes. Whether he'll get the three votes (or any) remains to be seen, but it was arguably his best individual performance of the year (along with the Essendon draw and the Richmond thrashing), so he deserves some credit for it.





Judd wasn't a clear-cut BOG in any of these games IMO, and (for the ones I didn't give him any votes in) you could raffle the votes between a few players for some of those games.

Also, as I said on BigFooty - I'm not disputing that Judd could win the medal; he's as good a chance as anyone to do that, and would be a worthy winner as one of the top handful of players in the league for the year, as he was last year. I just don't think he's had a significantly better year individually than last year, and I don't think he's been far-and-away, head-and-shoulders above everyone else to the point that he's a near-unbackable favourite, and one betting agency has paid out on him winning already. He just hasn't been that amazingly dominant over the rest of the competition this year and that far ahead of the other leading contenders that he deserves such overwhelming favouritism.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if when they got to the half way point of this year's count that Marc Murphy was the Carlton player leading the field, and Judd still hadn't reached double figures. Judd's second half of the year has been much better, brilliant, eye-catching and vote-worthy than his first, and people are forgeting that I think and thinking that he (just like Ablett) had a slow start to the year by his lofty standards. I think Judd will end up with 20-25 votes (I'll give a few extras to make up for the ones I've "missed"), but that's no certainty to be a winning total, and certainly not deserving of the unbackable favouratism he's received.

Judd will, and I repeat, WILL get 3 votes against Freo.

[Don Andres]

This looks like something I posted on BigFooty at 4:46pm on Tuesday afternoon...

If you're going to do a word-for-word copy-and-paste of something I've posted elsewhere, at least give me credit.



Thinking back to game again, I've probably sold Bryce Gibbs short in that one, for his job on Brendon Goddard. That being said, Carrazzo deserved to be in/around the votes. Whether he'll get the three votes (or any) remains to be seen, but it was arguably his best individual performance of the year (along with the Essendon draw and the Richmond thrashing), so he deserves some credit for it.





Judd wasn't a clear-cut BOG in any of these games IMO, and (for the ones I didn't give him any votes in) you could raffle the votes between a few players for some of those games.

Also, as I said on BigFooty - I'm not disputing that Judd could win the medal; he's as good a chance as anyone to do that, and would be a worthy winner as one of the top handful of players in the league for the year, as he was last year. I just don't think he's had a significantly better year individually than last year, and I don't think he's been far-and-away, head-and-shoulders above everyone else to the point that he's a near-unbackable favourite, and one betting agency has paid out on him winning already. He just hasn't been that amazingly dominant over the rest of the competition this year and that far ahead of the other leading contenders that he deserves such overwhelming favouritism.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if when they got to the half way point of this year's count that Marc Murphy was the Carlton player leading the field, and Judd still hadn't reached double figures. Judd's second half of the year has been much better, brilliant, eye-catching and vote-worthy than his first, and people are forgeting that I think and thinking that he (just like Ablett) had a slow start to the year by his lofty standards. I think Judd will end up with 20-25 votes (I'll give a few extras to make up for the ones I've "missed"), but that's no certainty to be a winning total, and certainly not deserving of the unbackable favouratism he's received.

Very disappointed in Cake

he has been negged.

[Mr Snrub]

Very disappointed in Cake

he has been negged.

[Damon_3388]

Judd will, and I repeat, WILL get 3 votes against Freo.

Alright, I'm willing to concede this one. However, that only gives Judd one extra vote above what I've given him. I think Judd will be in the 20-25 vote range in the end; Possibly enough to win, but certainly not a surefire winning lead, and certainly not deserving of such heavy favouritism as he is receiving.

Just out of interest, here's a projected vote spread from Collingwood's 2011 games:

Round 1, Collingwood vs. Port Adelaide (Collingwood win by 75 points)
3 - Dane Swan (Collingwood), 2 - Chris Dawes (Collingwood), 1 - Ben Johnson (Collingwood)

Round 2, North Melbourne vs. Collingwood (Collingwood win by 87 points)
3 - Scott Pendlebury (Collingwood), 2 - Dane Swan (Collingwood), 1 - Chris Dawes (Collingwood)

Round 3, Collingwood vs. Carlton (Collingwood win by 28 points)
3 - Jarryd Blair (Collingwood), 2 - Heath Shaw (Collingwood), 1 - Chris Judd (Carlton)

Round 4, Richmond vs. Collingwood (Collingwood win by 71 points)
3 - Dane Swan (Collingwood), 2 - Dale Thomas (Collingwood), 1 - Steele Sidebottom (Collingwood)

Round 5, Essendon vs. Collingwood (Collingwood win by 30 points)
3 - Scott Pendlebury (Collingwood), 2 - Travis Cloke (Collingwood), Stewart Crameri (Essendon)

Round 6, Collingwood vs. Western Bulldogs (Collingwood win by 48 points)
3 - Leigh Brown (Collingwood), 2 - Steele Sidebottom (Collingwood), 1 - Ryan Griffen (Western Bulldogs)

Round 8, Geelong vs. Collingwood (Geelong win by 3 points)
3 - Joel Selwood (Geelong), 2 - Heath Shaw (Collingwood), 1 - Steve Johnson (Geelong)

Round 9, Collingwood vs. Adelaide (Collingwood win by 43 points)
3 - Dale Thomas (Collingwood), 2 - Scott Pendlebury (Collingwood), 1 - Scott Thompson (Adelaide)

Round 10, Collingwood vs. West Coast (Collingwood win by 52 points)
3 - Dale Thomas (Collingwood), 2 - Scott Pendlebury (Collingwood), 1 - Leon Davis (Collingwood)

Round 11, Collingwood vs. St Kilda (Collingwood win by 57 points)
3 - Scott Pendlebury (Collingwood), 2 - Leon Davis (Collingwood), 1 - Travis Cloke (Collingwood)

Round 12, Melbourne vs. Collingwood (Collingwood win by 88 points)
3 - Travis Cloke (Collingwood), 2 - Scott Pendlebury (Collingwood), 1 - Luke Ball (Collingwood)

Round 14, Sydney vs. Collingwood (Collingwood win by 6 points)
3 - Travis Cloke (Collingwood), 2 - Josh Kennedy (Sydney), 1 - Dane Swan (Collingwood)

Round 15, Collingwood vs. Hawthorn (Collingwood win by 41 points)
3 - Dale Thomas (Collingwood), 2 - Scott Pendlebury (Collingwood), 1 - Luke Hodge (Hawthorn)

Round 16, Collingwood vs. North Melbourne (Collingwood win by 117 points)
3 - Scott Pendlebury (Collingwood), 2 - Dale Thomas (Collingwood), 1 - Dane Swan (Collingwood)

Round 17, Carlton vs. Collingwood (Collingwood win by 21 points)
3 - Dale Thomas (Collingwood), 2 - Chris Judd (Carlton), 1 - Scott Pendlebury (Collingwood)

Round 18, Gold Coast vs. Collingwood (Collingwood win by 54 points)
3 - Leon Davis (Collingwood), 2 - Luke Ball (Collingwood), 1 - Scott Pendlebury (Collingwood)

Round 19, Collingwood vs. Essendon (Collingwood win by 74 points)
3 - Dane Swan (Collingwood), 2 - Scott Pendlebury (Collingwood), 1 - Alex Fasolo (Collingwood)

Round 20, Port Adelaide vs. Collingwood (Collingwood win by 138 points)
3 - Dayne Beams (Collingwood), 2 - Jarryd Blair (Collingwood), 1 - Dane Swan (Collingwood)

Round 21, St Kilda vs. Collingwood (Collingwood win by 19 points)
3 - Dane Swan (Collingwood), 2 - Leigh Montagna (Collingwood), 1 - Dale Thomas (Collingwood)

Round 22, Collingwood vs. Brisbane (Collingwood win by 18 points)
3 - Travis Cloke (Collingwood), 2 - Matthew Leuenberger (Brisbane), 1 - Dane Swan (Collingwood)

Round 23, Fremantle vs. Collingwood (Collingwood win by 80 points)
3 - Scott Pendlebury (Collingwood), 2 - Dane Swan (Collingwood), 1 - Dayne Beams (Collingwood)

Round 24, Collingwood vs. Geelong (Geelong win by 96 points)
3 - Daniel Menzel (Geelong), 2 - Paul Chapman (Geelong), 1 - Joel Selwood (Geelong)

Collingwood votes
Scott Pendlebury, 27 votes (5 BOGs)
Dane Swan - 20 (4 BOGs)
Dale Thomas - 16 (4 BOGs)
Travis Cloke - 12 (3 BOGs)
Leon Davis - 6 (1 BOG)
Jarryd Blair - 5 (1 BOG)
Heath Shaw - 4
Dayne Beams - 4 (1 BOG)
Chris Dawes - 3
Leigh Brown - 3 (1 BOG)
Steele Sidebottom - 3
Luke Ball - 3
Ben Johnson - 1
Alex Fasolo - 1

People might call it Collingwood bias, but I'm really surprised Scott Pendlebury isn't receiving more Brownlow buzz than he is. Obviously he's acknowledged as "one of the favourites", but the number of people who are discounting or overlooking his chances is unusually high for someone who has played as well as he has, in such a consistent and "polished" manner as he has. The Pies have won 20 games, and Pendlebury (who hasn't missed a game this year) has been among the top two or three in the team in most games. Consistently being the best or one of the best performers in a team that have been as dominant as Collingwood has surely means he'd be in very serious contention for the medal. Even taking away the "winning team" factor, Judd (who hasn't been playing in a poor team) hasn't been that far ahead of Pendlebury individually, if at all.

Pendlebury and Judd may suffer from the same thing this year though, in that they may lose votes due to the great play of teammates and the sheer number of good performers their sides have across the board. They've both have good "eye catching" teammates who've taken things up a notch this year (Dale Thomas, Travis Cloke, Marc Murphy, Andrew Walker), as well as steady consistent hands who keep on producing (Dane Swan, Heath Scotland), and this may impact on how many votes they receive individually.

Anyway, beyond the regular favourites, a few dark horses - Nick Dal Santo (St Kilda), Matt Priddis (West Coast) and Andrew Swallow (North Melbourne). All three have improved upon previous best output, and have been consistently among their side's best and been thoroughly instrumental in their side's fortunes throughout this seasons, be it a rise up the ladder (West Coast) or recovering from a poor start to the year (St Kilda, North Melbourne). All are proven vote-getters, often despite their team's results; Dal Santo has reached double-figures in five seperate Brownlow counts, and Priddis and Swallow both reached double figures in bottom 8 sides last year. They could make you a bit of money on a place or team leading vote-getter bet, and might even be worth putting a cheeky $20 on for a win as well.

Two other players to take note of are big men Dean Cox (West Coast) and Todd Goldstein (North Melbourne). Both are having career-best seasons, and should make up the All-Australian ruck division (should they name two ruckmen in the side). However, neither is a consistent or proven vote-getter, and they both may be overshadowed by or lose votes because of the play of teammates. Nonetheless, it will be interesting to see how they both poll, as their impact and influence has been immense.

[pendleburied]

Nice analysis Damo, think you might be underselling Judd a bit with your count. Agree Pendles is in with a big shot. It really is a 2 horse race now IMO. (would be 3 if Mitchell was eligible)

[Indie]

This is somewhat biased, but I think Goodes is now a huge smokey. Will poll close to 15 votes in the last 6 to 7 rounds and wasn't too bad at the start of the year.

Thoughts?

[Drewy_GFC]

A long way from a smokey Indie, he is into 2nd favourite with Betfair. And is a massive chance of taking it out

[cc.]

Very disappointed in Cake

he has been negged.

This

[Goon]

So are any totes offering team leading multis this year?

[cc.]

Apparently not

[Rumblah]

Goodes will challenge and challenge well in my opinion.

[James Pattinson]

pendleburied, Goon, cc., Rumblah

Sportingbet Australia - Online Betting, Horse Racing & Sports Odds