R12: Adelaide vs. St. Kilda - Changes & Discussion

[Deebz]

It's meant to be a bit wet during the day so possibility of a wet playing surface may make team selections interesting. St. Kilda has a midget forward line as well, so we can't go in too tall down back either and expect Shaw or Henderson to take Milera, Milne or Saad.

Vince is the only confirmed out with his suspension, one of D-Mac or Knights will be in for him.

[meh]

Just made a thread, will merge it into here.

Big game Friday night on the national stage.

A few of you blokes talking about Stiffy may be in trouble but with St Kilda playing a relatively small forward line, I'd imagine he would keep his spot. I'd imagine Talia would go to Riewoldt & Rutten will take Kosi, Shaw to Saad? Stiffy got molested by Milne (inb4 Milne joke) last year, but then again so did the whole side, would like Jaensch to go to Milne and Stiffy to Milera.

I'm expecting just the 1 change with Mackay back for Vince.

Jack Steven did a massive job on Ablett last week so he will probably get the job on Danger or Sloane, and Jones will probably pick up the other one, Dave Armitage mentioned on the Rush Hour yesterday that these 2 were the danger men so perhaps Thompson won't get the tag this week.

Looks like they will have a few handy in, especially Sam Fisher, while McEvoy & Jacobs will be a crucial match-up in deciding the game.

Weather doesn't look too flash either.

[Deebz]

So you're not expecting Knights to play?

[meh]

So you're not expecting Knights to play?

To be honest I'd prefer Knights to come in the side than Mackay. Vince has been playing half in the middle, half across half forward, Knights can play that role perfectly, Mackay can not.

I just can't see us making any more than 1 change, and considering Mackay was coming into some good form I think they will look to bring him back.

Either way I'm not too disappointed but I will be if Stiffy gets dropped because he has a role to play this week whereas it's been questionable what his role will be in previous weeks.

[Deebz]

The small defenders will have their work cut out for them. Not convinced I would put Doughty on any of them, probably have Smith take Milera and Jaensch the other one Stiffy doesn't play on.

[Vermilion]

Talia on Kosi
Rutten on Reiwoldt (Talia or Shaw to take over if Reiwoldt gets on top)
Shaw on Siposs/McEvoy
Jaensch on Saad
Smith on Milera
Doughty on Milne
Reilly loose

[meh]

Well Stiffy is in doubt with a back injury so that may rule him out in any case.

[Deebz]

@Shutts10 Young Crow Brodie Smith won't play against St Kilda tomorrow night. Selection news @TenNewsADEL

Johncock is already out, heard it on the radio earlier today. Knights hasn't been named for the Eagles.

[meh]

Well that makes things interesting, Knights and dare I say, Symes?

[Deebz]

IN: Knights, Mackay, Martin
OUT: Johncock (back), Vince (susp.), Smith (omit)

Fisher and McEvoy named.

[meh]

Wow assumed Smith was injured, pretty stiff although he has been quiet in recent weeks.

Massive game for Knighta.

[Gaudz1]

Hopefully Knighta can bring some form in from SANFL. Am confident, but probably going to be wet which will even a few things out and probably make it better for that cunt Milne.

[Vermilion]

Friday night footy is here and this week the mighty Crows make their lone Friday night appearance (thanks Vlad). Thankfully I was organised (bludging at work) and was able to write the preview in time. Without further ado, let’s get stuck in to some mood music.



Adelaide Vs St Kilda




Friday 15th June 2012, 8:10pm
AAMI Stadium, Adelaide



Weather forecast: shower or two, 15 degrees max

Ladder:

Adelaide: 5th with 8 wins, 2 losses @ 128%
St Kilda: 8th with 6 wins, 5 losses @ 125%

Recent form:

Adelaide: WLWWW
St Kilda: WLWLW

Head to head: Adelaide 18, St Kilda 15

Previous encounters:

Round 18, 2011 @ Etihad Stadium: St Kilda 19.13 (127) def Adelaide 3.6 (24)
Round 6, 2011 @ AAMI Stadium: Adelaide 13.12 (90) def St Kilda 9.17 (71)
Round 22, 2010 @ AAMI Stadium: Adelaide 9.11 (65) def St Kilda 5.7 (37)
Round 10, 2010 @ Etihad Stadium : St Kilda 19.9 (123) def Adelaide 12.4 (76)
Round 16, 2009 @ Etihad Stadium: St Kilda 15.15 (105) def Adelaide 7.6 (48)

Odds: Adelaide $1.45, St Kilda $2.75

Milestones: Richard Douglas (100 games)

The story so far:


Adelaide were fortunate to escape their encounter with a strange beast.

The Sando show just keeps rolling on. After a reality check against Collingwood, the Crows bounced back with a 29 point win against Fremantle in Perth. However it wasn’t as assured as the final margin suggests with a trademark third quarter fade out (and a stirring fightback from Freo) turning a six goal lead into a deficit early in the final quarter. This was the kick up the arse the Crows needed, and led by Walker, Sloane and Dangerfield, the Crows piled on the final five goals of the game to get the win and head in to the bye with an 8-2 win/loss record.

Adelaide are 2-2 in recent years after the bye and Sanderson will be desperate to prevent the same lapse of concentration that dogs us after half time in games.



Many of us had written off the Saints prior to the start of the season. Ross Lyon had jumped the sinking ship, Zac Dawson (lol) had joined him, their stars were all over-the-hill and their youngsters shit...

Enter Scott Watters. So far he has done a terrific job at not only keeping spirits high, after the disastrous year that was 2011, but he has totally changed the fashion in which they play footy. No longer are they just looking to shut teams down and grind out ugly wins each week, but instead they are looking to take the game on and score freely. Milera and Saad have given their forward line a quick and agile feel to it and Reiwoldt and Koschitske are in terrific form. Their veterans are playing well and their depth (apart from the ruck) seems solid enough. They have been overcome by solid, contested-ball winning midfields at times, losing to a fired-up Richmond and West Coast in recent weeks.

This week they are coming off a six day break and travelling interstate to face a team that has just had the bye. A tough ask for any side.

Team lineups:

Adelaide:

A few big names coming in and a few big names coming out this week with Vince (suspended) and Johncock (back injury) coming out, along with the omitted Brodie Smith. In comes Mackay who has recovered from his slight hamstring strain, and forgotten pair Brodie Martin and Chris Knights.

B: Reilly, Rutten, Shaw
HB: Jaensch, Talia, Reilly
C: van Berlo, Thompson, Mackay
HF: Petrenko, Walker, Wright
F: Jenkins, Tippett, Porplyzia
R: Jacobs, Sloane, Dangerfield
I/C: Callinan, Douglas, Martin, Knights

St Kilda:

A couple of big inclusions for the Saints with Fisher and McEvoy set to make their return from injuries. Youngsters Simpkin and Newnes are the ones to make way. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Geary come in as a late inclusion, particularly if the AAMI Stadium surface is heavy.

B: Gram, Blake, Gwilt
HB: Dempster, Fisher, Gilbert
C: Armitage, Hayes, Dal Santo
HF: Steven, Reiwoldt, Goddard
F: Milne, Koschitzke, Saad
R: McEvoy, Montagna, Jones
I/C: Clarke, Schneider, Siposs, Milera

Players to watch/key matchups:

Richard Douglas



After a month-long layoff with a hamstring injury, Douglas has played the last two games. After making little impact as the sub, he was prolific against the Dockers, recording 21 disposals and 8 clearances. This week he lines up for his 100th match and should have a point to prove to his team mates. With Sloane/Thompson/Dangerfield set to cop close attention from the St Kilda midfielders, Douggie is one player who could really get away from them. In his last three games against them, he’s had 21, 27 and 31 disposals respectively and scored a goal or more in each of them. Definite danger player for the Saints.

Josh Jenkins



With St Kilda’s undersized defence prone to leaking goals to big forwards, the third Adelaide tall could really benefit. Jenkins, preferred over Lynch, Johnston and McKernan for the spot, is likely to come up against Sam Gilbert who is still some way below his best form. He also doesn’t have the size or strength to compete in the air against Leroy. Fisher will no doubt help out but it will be very difficult for the Saints to stop all of Adelaide’s talls, even with inclement weather.

Lenny Hayes



The star Saint has made a decent return to football this year after cruelly missing nearly all of 2011 with an ACL injury. In one of the good news stories of this season, the likeable on-baller has played every game of 2011 and has slotted back in seamlessly, picking up prolific numbers in typical fashion. He will probably need to rove to the opposition ruckman as Blake and/or the underdone McEvoy will struggle against Jacobs.

Steven Milne



The tiprat had a field day against us last year, kicking eight goals in what was the final nail in Neil’s coffin. His opponent that night, Johncock, has been in poor form and as a result has been moved out of defence. This has left Doughty, Reilly, Jaensch and Smith as the smaller players down back. I’d expect Doughty to be given the job on him as he has the discipline and the smarts to go with him. On a slippery night, Milne could be very dangerous, particularly if we aren’t alert to his love affair with unconsential…sorry…I mean to say his love affair with playing on and kicking from around his body.

Tippett vs Blake



The veteran Saint is possibly in career-best form this year. He may even fancy himself for a Brownlow vote, especially since he’s shouldered the rucking duties in the absence of McEvoy and Stanley. He was the only player to keep Jack Reiwoldt in check, in the round 10 thriller, and once again he is likely to be needed to fix gaps everywhere. Assuming McEvoy is back, he will almost certainly get the job on Tippett, who has caused the Saints problems in the past.

Meanwhile, Tippett’s form in the past month has been a little patchy. His kicking for goal has been diabolical at times this year and is preventing him from attaining elite status. It really is a momentum killer when time and time again, he misses dollies from right in front.

Jones vs Thompson


Clint Jones seen here taking tagging to new levels.

After amassing 130 disposals in four weeks, Thompson has been well held in his last two outings. With taggers scragging him and a heavy workload, I’d suggest the bye came at a perfect time for him. The ghost of that finals game in 2005 still hangs over him each time we play the Saints (in my mind at least) and I’m hoping he doesn’t lose his head from the close attention he will cop from Jones.

Talia vs Koschitzke

After coming up pretty much even against Pavlich, this week will again test the young defender. Kosi has been turning back the clock a bit this year, looking much more dangerous in front of goal, kicking an incredibly accurate 19.3. His output has dropped off recently though, with just five goals in his last five games. McEvoy and Stanley being out with injury has meant he’s had to spend more time in the ruck.
Meanwhile, Talia continues to impress. After conceding two goals in four matches, he had a tough battle with Pavlich and wasn’t disgraced, conceding 3.3 (one of which should have been a free kick to Talia). He isn’t blessed with the finesse of Davis, but he more than makes up for it with his courage and determination at the contest. A definite star on the rise.

DT/SC:

Jason Gram

“Like many quick, rangy, outside players, he absolutely loves playing Adelaide.”

^^My token comment regarding outside players who kill us. After a long layoff with injury, he has just started to hit some form in recent times, recording 30 touches against the Cold Ghosters and 22 touches and two goals against Richmond. He has a strong record against the Crows, averaging 22 touches a game as well as several close-to-BOG games. Expect him and Fisher (if he plays) to take turns going free on the half back line where they should pick up possessions at will. Surely a lock for 25+ disposals and 90+ fantasy footy points.

Sam Shaw

He’s now played two matches and performed solidly in both. His price will change after this week, so he could be a very handy cheap option, particularly for those needing to make changes to accommodate the bye.

Rising star:

Arryn Siposs



Hitler approves of his name but the young Saint was pretty impressive against the Suns, picking up 20 disposals, 9 marks, 6 tackles and if not for some wayward kicking, could have had a nice haul of goals. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him come up against another impressive youngster in Sam Shaw.

Fun fact(s):

(1) We haven’t broken the 100 point barrier in our last eight clashes with the Saints.
(2) Our only draw in the AFL competition came against St Kilda in 1994 at Waverley Park
(3) Brad Symes hasn’t played an AFL game since we were skullfucked by 103 points by them last year

Why Adelaide will win:



We beat Port; Port beat St Kilda; so it follows that we’ll also beat St Kilda. Right???

Our clearance work (ranked #1 in the AFL) should also give us the edge in the midfield.

Why St Kilda will win:



We have struggled at times in the wet this year, particularly against GWS and Collingwood. The problems are mainly at ground level, where our players struggle to pick up the greasy ball, resulting in fumbling and players falling over. With showers forecast, this should favour the Saints by taking away some of our advantage in the air. I don’t think the Saints have played in the wet too much this year, but their experienced players have shown they are all pretty good in inclement conditions.

The verdict:



Big game this one, for both sides. Despite the weather predictions, I expect there will be more than 39,000 at AAMI Stadium this Friday. The Saints have been solid in most outings this year, with some big wins over lowly sides and some close losses against in-form/top sides. A win this week would really stamp their authority as a genuine top 8 side, while a loss brings them back down to Fremantle/Carlton/Richmond’s level. For us, it’s a chance to take another step towards a top 4 spot and the double chance in September. For me it all comes down to who’s midfield can get the ball inside 50 cleanly. Both sides are capable of scoring heavily when their midfields are on top, with quality tall forwards being backed up by dangerous small forwards. I think our extra height in defence might just be the difference between the two sides with none of Blake, Simpkin, Gilbert or Fisher really being big and strong enough to stop Tippett, Walker and Jenkins (who may or may not play). As a result of this, I’m going to tip Adelaide by 22 points.

[meh]

What to do with Goddard? We don't really have a match-up for him as a defensive forward, Petrenko will do a job on the ground but don't fancy him in the air, could Knights do the job?

[Deebz]

Shaw was fantastic tonight. If he can continue playing like that as he gets more games, Andy Otten has to be almost finished as a Crows player. Trade bait?